Summary Is there a way to feel better about the consumer credit situation? How long can consumers brush off higher rates? The economic story of the year so far is how hopes for lower interest rates have been dashed by a disruption in the trend decline in inflation. The gravity-defying power of consumer spending deserves a hearty share of the blame.
This report unpacks the latest data on consumer credit with a skeptical eye on the ability for consumers to keep borrowing. Spending and income, the broken relationship On an inflation-adjusted basis, consumer spending tracked reasonably well with disposable income growth in the 20 years leading up to the pandemic. In overly simplistic terms, more income meant more spending. Things got turned upside down over the past four years .