Budget 2024: Jim Chalmers’ budget boast ignores Australia’s debt mountain

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The substantial fiscal challenge from the budget is a forecast decade of deficits and highest plateau of federal government net debt for more than half a century.

about the supposedly “stunning improvement in our nation’s finances” under Labor overlooks the contribution from the massive and unexpected rebound in tax revenue as Australia’s national income has been pumped up by an energy and commodity price boom exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.more revenue than expected between the election of the Albanese government and the end of the forward estimates.

These foundations support a AAA sovereign debt rating that helps foreign investors retain confidence in a commodity-exporting economy which must rely on global capital to develop its resource base. Australia’s net debt as a share of GDP is low compared to most of its developed country peers. But it is not the future. For all its advantages, even the United States is heading for a reckoning over its fiscal profligacy. Much smaller, more commodity-driven Australia certainly can’t carry the debt levels that it does without high economic and political risks.

With a decade of deficits, and debt now plateaued at very high levels, the public needs to understand that governments are going to be constrained by the need for growth and financial responsibility. They need better answers from this government than overblown claims of restraint.

 

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