Interest rates: The Federal Reserve’s inflation strategy is undershooting, big time

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Neutral interest rates are much higher than the US central bank realises, a former the New York Fed president argues.

Already a subscriber?To a large and under-appreciated extent, the job of the US Federal Reserve entails chasing an elusive number: r*, or the neutral short-term interest rate.

First, the impact of short-term rates depends on other financial phenomena such as long-term rates, stock prices and credit spreads – all of which vary considerably on their own. Third, there’s always a lot going in the economy other than monetary policy. Such as, right now, a wave of investment in artificial intelligence.

One measure of underlying demand – real final sales to private domestic purchasers – rose 3.1 per cent. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecasts 3.5 per cent growth in the second quarter.

 

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