Federal Reserve likely to scale back plans for rate cuts because of persistent inflation | Christopher Rugaber

In a set of quarterly economic forecasts they will issue after their latest meeting ends, the policymakers are expected to project that they will cut their benchmark rate just once or twice by year’s end, rather than the three times they had envisioned in March.

But if borrowing costs remain high in the coming months, they could also have consequences for the presidential race. Though the unemployment rate is a low 4 percent, hiring is robust and consumers continue to spend, voters have taken a generally sour view of the economy under President Joe Biden. In large part, that’s because prices remain much higher than they were before the pandemic struck. High borrowing rates impose a further financial burden.

Inflation had fallen steadily in the second half of last year, raising hopes that the Fed could achieve a “soft landing,” whereby it would manage to conquer inflation through rate hikes without causing a recession. Such an outcome is difficult and rare. Last month, Christopher Waller, an influential member of the Fed’s Board of Governors, said he needed to see “several more months of good inflation data” before he would consider supporting rate cuts. Though Waller didn’t spell out what would constitute good data, economists think it would have to be core inflation of 0.2 percent or less each month.

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