Putin’s visits to North Korea and Vietnam should be seen in the context of a diplomatic dance rooted in self-interest.
Mr Kim claims that his country and Russia are tied in an “alliance” – a characterisation that Moscow has avoided using – with Mr Putin merely talking of ties at a “new level”. As well, the Russian statement seemed to stress that the strategic partnership consisted of clauses on trade, investment and humanitarian affairs.
As for the North Korea stop, Professor Victor Cha, a former National Security Council Asia policy director, wrote on the Centre for Strategic and International Studies website that the agreements reached present “the greatest threat to US national security” since the Korean War.Let’s face it, rather than some huge strategic breakthrough, the Moscow-Pyongyang axis just unveiled signals weakness, particularly for North Korea.
As for the special outreach to North Korea, aside from signalling gratitude for critical artillery supplies, it is perhaps more about thumbing the Putin nose at US President Joe Biden. China painted the conversations between the senior defence and foreign officials of both nations as between two beneficiaries of globalisation, both of which had a mutual interest in opposing protectionism and trade barriers. Guess who they have in mind.
China is also uneasy over attempts led by Japan to link the European and Asian theatres in the global perception, and its invitation to Nato to set up an office in Tokyo. Perhaps it was a nudge to Washington from Hanoi to not take things for granted. It would certainly help Hanoi’s purposes if the Putin visit alarmed Washington enough to be more accommodating of Hanoi’s interests, including lifting its classification of Vietnam as a “non-market economy”.East Asians and particularly people in Asean have frequently been likened to the bamboo, swaying with the breeze while staying comfortably rooted in self-interest.
India would have been distinctly uncomfortable to see China involved in such a strategically critical project within the boundaries of a close neighbour. The development on Myitsone follows Senior General Min Aung Hlaing’s revelation in March that the regime was negotiating with Russia to build a deep-sea port in the Thailand-adjacent Dawei special economic zone. That’s a project in the south that was initially reckoned to go to Thailand and Japan.