WASHINGTON/SAN FRANCISCO - - Bond investors expect an aggressive set of U.S. interest rate cuts this year, and a voluble president pines for the “old days” when his predecessors bullied central bankers to get their way.
At the extreme, that sort of volatility could feed into the real economy and make the Fed’s job in coming weeks even more complicated. The Fed begins its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, and will issue a new statement and economic projections at 2 p.m. on Wednesday. Powell’s press conference is scheduled to begin Wednesday at 2:30 p.m.
But it is unclear by how much. One Federal Reserve regional bank president has referred to the outlook as “darkened,” and another has called for lower rates “soon.” Powell in his most recent public comments dropped the use of the word “patient” in referring to the Fed’s posture when it comes to deciding on the next rate move.
But Powell this week may have a pronounced information gap to fill. As of March, 11 of 17 policymakers felt that rates at year-end would be unchanged from today, and the other six saw them as likely a bit higher.
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