Half of Canadian and U.S. small businesses expect a recession this year, poll finds

The results, released Tuesday, were more pessimistic than the consensus estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, who see a 33 per cent chance of recession over the next 12 months.

The data mirror pessimism in a separate report Tuesday by the National Federation of Independent Business. An overall optimism index maintained by that small business organization fell in June to its lowest level since early 2013. Determining the start of a recession can be debatable in the U.S. The National Bureau of Economic Research, a group that declares the start and ending of U.S. economic downturns, defines it as a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” Often, the U.S. is deep into a recession or even beyond it before the NBER ever makes such a declaration.

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