HONG KONG — Investors trying to sniff out signs of the next recession should pay attention to any increase in unemployment rather than movements in bond yield curves and manufacturing, says Credit Suisse Chief Economist James Sweeney.
Still, Sweeney says those are not currently compelling reasons to be alarmed. The overall labor market is what investors want to watch, he said Thursday during a presentation at the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong. He said that developed economies are racking up their lowest jobless rates since the early 1980s, and manufacturing ups and downs are less important for overall employment given demographic changes.
LEI and Starts would be good at this stage
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